Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
