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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd